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Changes in Odds Immediately Before or Right After the Start of the Match
The adjustment of odds that occurs immediately before a sporting event or right after its start can be caused by the following factors:
- Absence of a key player due to injury or disqualification. Typically, such information is known in advance and rarely comes as a “surprise.” However, if it does occur, the odds can quickly rise;
- Unexpected lineup changes. Such actions by coaches indicate a sudden change in the game strategy, which can have both positive and negative effects on the outcome. In this case, bookmakers often increase bets on such a team since any previously unaccounted factor adds complexity to the analysis, thus increasing the risk;
- Insider information about the psychological state or level of motivation of the team, which was confirmed by the style of play at the beginning of the sporting event.
Changes in Odds During the Match
The primary factor determining the fluctuation of odds during a sporting event is the dynamics of the score, which reflects the overall situation of the competition. The criteria that bookmakers analyze can be illustrated with the example of a football match:
- The percentage of ball possession throughout the previous part of the game, usually analyzed based on the first half’s gameplay situation;
- The number of corners, dangerous free kicks, or penalties;
- Injuries to key players;
- Receipt of yellow or red cards, resulting in the game being played with a numerical advantage or disadvantage, etc.
Freezing or Removal of Odds
In live mode, a bettor may encounter a situation where it’s impossible to place a bet because the odds are inactive/unavailable. This can occur due to standard gameplay situations or for other reasons.
Temporary Freeze Before a Key Moment in the Game
Most often, it is short-term and implemented by the bookmaker when an important gameplay moment occurs in the competition. For example, this could be a penalty in football or another critical moment that could change the entire game if the score is tied. Freezing the odds is particularly common at the end of one of the periods or in the final stages of a sporting competition. The need for a temporary freeze is explained by bookmakers because not all bettors watch sporting events through bookmaker resources. Many of them may watch the game directly in stadiums or through broadcasts on sports channels. This allows them to place bets at old odds before a key change in the game occurs.
IMPORTANT! As a rule, after a freeze due to key gameplay moments, the odds change sharply by a significant margin.
Overwhelming Advantage of One of the Teams
Freezing one of the odds, particularly for the favorite’s victory, may be done by bookmakers if the score in the match, combined with the level of the winning team, makes it physically impossible for the underdog to make a comeback. For example, in a match between the league leader and the underdog with a score of 5:0 in favor of the favorite, in most cases, bets on their victory are suspended. However, other bets on goal difference, the number of goals scored, and others, continue to be accepted.
Match-Fixing
If bookmakers have even the slightest suspicion that a sporting event shows signs of match-fixing, all bets on it, including those already placed, are immediately frozen. Subsequently, if the information is confirmed, the bets are completely annulled. In other words, winnings are not paid out, and the amount of the bet is returned to the players.
Bookmaker Errors and Other Factors
Less frequently, adjustments to the odds occur due to bookmaker errors. They can be conditionally divided into two main categories.
Software Failures
When forming odds for sports events, most bookmakers use special services such as Phumelela, ODDS.ru, Betradar, Flashscore.ru, Livescore.com, and Hot-odds.com. For example, more than 500 bookmakers cooperate with the Betradar service. However, even such authoritative resources are not immune to errors caused by software glitches. They most often manifest in misspelled player names and team names, but there can also be mutual swapping of odds between outsiders and favorites. Also, there is quite often a delay in updating the odds in a particular line, especially during dynamically progressing matches with a large number of standard gameplay situations affecting the final score.
Human Factor Influence
The influence of the human factor is a relatively rare phenomenon, resulting in erroneous odds. The reason lies in the maximum automation of setting odds in bookmaker services with simultaneous checking. However, sometimes errors caused by typos still occur. In such cases, bettors shouldn’t rejoice in the possibility of making extra profit in advance. More often than not, such odds are quickly corrected, and bets made on them are annulled. Additionally, bettors who frequently track and bet on erroneous odds may be added to a special list by the bookmaker’s administration and could be blocked for even the slightest violation of regulations or rules.
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